As great powers develop anti-satellite capabilities and seek to secure their orbital infrastructure, space is increasingly becoming a strategic and military domain. According to U.S. Secretary of War – Pete Hegseth outer space is “the single most decisive battlefield of this century and centuries to come”. He insisted that “whoever controls the high ground controls the fight”. The comprehensive discussion at the “Apéro Geopolitique” conference on March 25 in Geneva at Château d’Aire, hosted by the Swiss UMEF University of Applied Sciences Institute, examined space as the emerging strategic frontier of the 21st century.
The panel brought together leading experts: Dr. Benjamin Guyot – CEO of Spacetalk and Swiss – based space law expert serving as an officer in Switzerland’s Space Command, Dr. Urs Vögeli – Director of the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs, and Hicheme Lehmici – geopolitical expert and lecturer at Swiss UMEF University, to explore whether space will become an arena for global rivalry or remain a shared frontier for humanity.
The New Space Race: From Cold War to Multipolar Competition
The discussion opened with a comparison between the original space race and today’s multipolar competition. While the Cold War era saw a bipolar contest between the Soviet Union and United States, the contemporary space landscape involves multiple major powers pursuing ambitious programmes with both scientific and strategic objectives.
Hicheme Lehmici provided detailed analysis of current lunar programmes, highlighting two competing initiatives targeting permanent bases by 2030. The US-led Artemis programme encompasses approximately thirty countries, primarily from the Western sphere including the European Union and Japan, aiming to establish a sustainable human presence at the Moon’s South Pole. This location offers strategic advantages: water ice deposits essential for life support and fuel production, plus permanent sunrise enabling reliable solar energy generation.
In direct competition, China and Russia are developing the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project, which takes a more robotic approach and notably includes plans for a nuclear power plant to solve energy supply challenges. China has already achieved significant lunar milestones, including landings on the far side of the moon in 2019 and 2024, with the real achievement being the relay satellites and connectivity infrastructure that enable communication with the far side.
The experts noted how the focus has shifted from Venus – where the Soviet Union achieved the first successful planetary landing – to the Moon and Mars. Dr. Urs Vögeli explained this transition, noting that while Venus is “very harsh,” Mars offers more compelling strategic narratives, including Elon Musk’s vision of a “second Earth” and China’s goal to send the first person to Mars by 2049 to mark the centenary of the People’s Republic of China.
Military Dimensions and Space Weaponisation
The military aspects of space emerged as a central theme, with experts examining how space has evolved from scientific endeavour to what USA Secretary of War Pete Hegseth described as “the single most decisive battlefield for the human race.” This reflects the strategic principle that controlling the high ground determines conflict outcomes – now extended to orbital space.
Current space budgets reflect this militarization: the global space budget totals $135 billion annually, with the US allocating $53 billion, China $20 billion, the EU $9 billion, and Russia under $4 billion. The United States dominates with approximately 8,000 satellites out of 15,000 total, with Starlink controlling three-quarters of American satellites. China is rapidly expanding with the Guowang and Qianfan constellations, planning 15,000 satellites by 2030-2035 and potentially 50,000 longer term.
The discussion covered anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons existing among four major powers: Russia, the United States, China, and India. However, Dr. Benjamin Guyot explained the strategic paradox – destroying satellites generates debris through the Kessler syndrome, potentially damaging one’s own space assets. More concerning are emerging technologies including laser systems for satellite disruption, as reportedly used by Russia during the Ukraine conflict, and potential nuclear-powered orbital weapons systems.
Private Companies and Infrastructure Dependencies
A significant focus was how private companies have revolutionized space access while creating governance challenges. SpaceX’s approach of launching twice weekly with reusable first stages have dramatically reduced costs, making space accessible beyond traditional state actors. This “New Space” economy encompasses global internet provision, Internet of Things applications enabling remote operations, and emerging opportunities in space manufacturing.
Dr. Vögeli highlighted pharmaceutical and biotechnology manufacturing in zero gravity as a promising sector, where unique conditions offer advantages for producing biological compounds. However, privatization raises questions about state control over critical infrastructure, demonstrated during the Ukraine conflict when Starlink became vital for Ukrainian military communications after Russian forces destroyed terrestrial systems.
The experts emphasized humanity’s growing dependence on space infrastructure: navigation systems (GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou), communications networks, and Earth observation systems like the EU’s Copernicus programme, which creates a “digital twin” of Earth for climate monitoring. Despite this dependence, no neutral mechanism exists for basic collision avoidance between rival nations, a gap that Dr. Guyot’s Swiss-based Spacetalk company attempts to address.
Governance Challenges and International Law
The discussion revealed significant weaknesses in current space governance. The foundational 1967 Outer Space Treaty established important principles like space as common heritage and prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space, but lacks enforcement mechanisms. The 1979 Moon Agreement received limited ratification, and no significant progress in space law has occurred since the 1970s.
Dr. Vögeli identified competing governance narratives: the American approach highlights entrepreneurial capitalism and private development, versus the Chinese and BRICS approach emphasizing international law and space as “common heritage of mankind.” This tension is exemplified by Luxembourg’s and US-legislation for asteroid mining rights, which challenges traditional interpretations of space law.
The planned decommissioning of the International Space Station in 4-6 years will probably leave China with the only space station infrastructure, potentially shifting the balance of space capabilities and cooperation opportunities. But plans are underway for private stations in the west.
Environmental Sustainability and Regional Participation
Environmental concerns emerged prominently, with over one million pieces of debris larger than one centimeter currently orbiting Earth. The planned deployment of hundreds of thousands of additional satellites raises sustainability questions, particularly as current business models rely on satellites burning up in atmosphere after five years, requiring constant replacement launches.
The discussion addressed how smaller nations can participate in space activities too. In Africa, this role is mainly carried by national agencies, notably Egyptian Space Agency and Algerian Space Agency (ASAL), which illustrate the continent’s growing presence despite limited integration. Other emerging powers such as Turkey are also developing space capabilities, while Iran has achieved independent satellite capacity, often relying on dual-use technologies and external partnerships.
India’s successful lunar South Pole landing in 2023, while Russia’s similar attempt failed, demonstrates that space capabilities are no longer limited to traditional powers. The experts suggested that small and middle powers should focus on finding niches and forming regional partnerships rather than attempting independent programmes.
Future Challenges and Implications
The discussion concluded with recognition of critical unresolved issues. The transition from voluntary guidelines to enforceable international law for space sustainable behavior remains incomplete. Current institutions may be inadequate for managing space conflicts between major powers. Environmental sustainability must be addressed before debris makes orbits unusable.
Perhaps most fundamentally, the discussion raised a striking question about humanity’s relationship with space. As Hicheme Lehmici observed, we have reached an unprecedented situation in which humanity, through its technologies, is effectively pointing weapons at itself from space – turning the Earth into both the source and the target of potential conflict. This marks a profound shift from exploration to self-directed militarisation on a planetary scale.
While space still offers immense opportunities for development and growth, the experts stressed that avoiding escalation and environmental degradation will require unprecedented international cooperation. The decisions made in the coming decades will determine whether space becomes a domain of human progress or a new theater of self-destructive competition.
Katy Cojuhari, moderator.